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Lead story

China tariff cuts are coming for some promo goods, but not apparel, and not yet. Freight and fuel are the bigger Q4 cost.

Three things for a distributor to know. On September 28 the US and China named about $30 billion of Chinese goods for tariff cuts. ASI's read of the US list: playing cards, plates, flashlights, sporting goods and certain vacuum-insulated containers are on it; apparel, stationery and most drinkware are not, and no new rate or start date has been set. The trade truce now runs to January 10, 2027, so China goods face no tariff jump this quarter. Meanwhile costs rose elsewhere: a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles cost $7,835 on October 1, and diesel hit a record $6.53 a gallon on September 21.

ASI, Supply Chain Dive, Drewry, USAFacts · 6 min readWhat the deal cuts, what freight costs, and the holiday dates →

By the numbers. What changed, and what it costs.

$30BChinese goods named for tariff cuts on September 28. Plates, playing cards and some insulated bottles are on the list. Apparel is not. Nothing is cheaper yet.
$7,835Cost of a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles on October 1, up from $7,712 three weeks earlier. Drewry expects a small dip after China's Golden Week holiday.
$6.53Record US diesel price per gallon, in the week of September 21. That is 89% above January's low, and it feeds every freight and fuel surcharge you pay.

Five things to know

What moved between Sep 20 to Oct 2.

A free knit cup sleeve from Dunkin' and L.L.Bean was gone within hours. It now resells for up to $125.

On September 22 Dunkin' gave away a tiny knit sleeve, made to look like L.L.Bean's Birdseye sweater, with any hot or iced coffee, while supplies lasted. Judging by group chats, SheKnows reported, supplies lasted until about 9 a.m., and the sleeves were listed on eBay that day for $25 to $125. The full-size collection followed on September 29: a $79.95 sweater, a $59.95 Boat and Tote and a $24.95 mini coffee tote. Boston 25 reported it 'may already be sold out'.

Takeaway The item that started the rush was a free knit koozie handed out with a purchase. Pitch a client a one-week, while-supplies-last sleeve or koozie for their best customers. The scarcity costs nothing.

SheKnows, Patriot Ledger, Boston 25 · Sep 22

Nike's sales fell 4% and it expects a smaller year. Sales to stores held up better than its own shops.

Nike reported $11.2 billion in revenue for the quarter to August, down 4%. Sales to wholesale partners fell only 1% to $6.8 billion, while Nike's own stores and website fell 8% to $4.1 billion. It expects revenue to decline by a high single-digit percentage for the full year and announced a cost plan called Pace, worth about $2.5 billion in savings through 2031. Inventory is down 3% to $7.8 billion.

Takeaway A brand cutting $2.5 billion in costs usually trims styles. If a client's 2027 uniform or gift program depends on specific Nike pieces, confirm they continue before you quote the year.

Nike · Oct 1

Shoppers are gloomier, but employers are still hiring.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, and people's view of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024. Prices, and gas prices in particular, topped their worries. On the other side, employers announced 43,281 job cuts in September, the lowest September since 2022, and hiring plans for the year are up 3%, per Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Seasonal hiring is weak.

Takeaway Your clients' employees feel squeezed by prices, and your clients are still adding people. That points to useful gifts people would otherwise buy for themselves, and to new-hire kits, not more trinkets.

Conference Board, Challenger · Oct 1

Proforma is suing its founder, Greg Muzzillo, over how big he says the company is.

Proforma's parent company filed suit in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, on September 29. It says Muzzillo, who founded Proforma in 1978 and now runs Dream Big Ventures, claimed Proforma has 'more than 900 franchise offices and sales approaching $1 billion'. Proforma says the real figures are 'nearly 500 member offices and approximately $650 million in sales'. It wants an injunction and damages. Muzzillo's attorney says his client 'strongly disputes the allegations'.

Takeaway These are allegations, not findings. But if you own a Proforma office, or someone is recruiting you with network numbers, ask for the figures in writing.

PPAI · Sep 30

The company behind OrderMyGear, Printavo, DistributorCentral and InkSoft has a new name: Taivo.

Inktavo, which owns eight promo and print software products, renamed itself Taivo on September 22 and says it has more than 11,000 active clients. Nothing changes today: same logins, same pricing, same features. What it promises, with no dates attached, is one connected suite where orders flow from one product to the next, plus AI features.

Takeaway If you run company stores on OrderMyGear or quote in DistributorCentral, ask your rep at renewal what 'connected' will mean and when. Do not pay extra for a bundle that is still a promise.

Printavo · Sep 22

What to sell now

Five programs that remove a buyer's risk. Reported is what the source says. The move is our read.

Holiday gifts

One useful gift with a personal touch, at the budget the client already has

A Harris Poll of 2,007 US adults, run in July for the gifting company Packed with Purpose, found that 59% of people who have received corporate gifts would rather get nothing than something that feels generic, and 15% have received one so poor it felt insulting. 84% prefer an inexpensive useful gift to an expensive one they will not use. Gifts tied to a charity had 3.2 times the odds of strengthening the relationship; personalized gifts, 2 times. A gifting company paid for the survey, so use it as a talking point, not proof.

The move When a client asks for 500 of the usual logo item, show them the 59% number. Then quote one useful item, such as good drinkware, a blanket or a quality tote, with the recipient's name on it or a donation card in the box, at the same price per head.

Harris Poll via PR Newswire
HR programs

A 'welcome back' kit for clients with return-to-office mandates

An analysis by Resume.io, reported by HR Dive, puts the cost of going into the office at about $6,736 a year per worker, 9.3% of a typical salary, and $16,538 for parents paying for childcare. Commuting alone is about $2,751. Workers in the survey are in the office 4.18 days a week on average. Employers are offsetting it with commuter benefits, stipends, shuttles, subsidized meals and flexible hours.

The move No kit makes up for $6,700, so do not sell it that way. Sell it as the visible thank-you that goes with the stipend or the free lunch: a commuter tumbler, a good bag, an umbrella. Start with HR contacts at clients that announced office mandates this year.

HR Dive
Year-end

Tariff refunds are landing, and some companies plan to spend them on bonuses and rebates

An Atlanta Fed survey of 1,156 executives, reported by CFO Dive, found that 9% of companies have already received refunds of the tariffs the Supreme Court struck down, and another 14% think they are eligible. The average refund equals 1.7% of a year's revenue. Three-quarters plan to keep the money as cash, but 17% plan customer rebates and 12.7% plan employee bonuses.

The move Ask your importing clients, such as manufacturers, retailers and wholesalers, whether a refund has come in. If it has, pitch a slice of it as a year-end employee gift or a customer thank-you before it disappears into the cash line.

CFO Dive
Loyalty

A $4 mystery keychain, with ten golden ones hidden in the run

Dairy Queen's Halloween promotion sells plush keychains for $4 with any purchase, in five designs packed blind so buyers do not know which they get. One of them, a golden 'Goldie', is rare: there are only ten in the US and ten in Canada, and finding one wins a year of free Blizzards. It runs through November 1.

The move The idea works at any size. Quote a client a run of plush or PVC keychains in blind packaging, with a handful of gold versions that win something. It turns a small add-on into a reason to come back.

Brand Eating
Apparel

Rugby shirts, the fall alternative to the crewneck

Glossy reports that searches for 'rugby shirt' on the shopping app LTK rose 750% in a month, and clicks on American Eagle's striped rugby rose 142%. Brands from Gucci to J.Crew and American Eagle are selling them, and Brooks Brothers says it is making more small sizes of its men's rugby because women are buying it. The same week, Chili's put a $50 vintage rugby shirt in its new merch line, next to $60 hoodies and $30 hats.

The move Put a striped rugby with an embroidered chest logo next to the usual quarter-zip in your next fall or holiday apparel presentation. Retail has already set the price at $50.

Glossy

Margin and sourcing rules

Five rules for the quarter, each led by the number that changed.

Dec 15

Set your holiday cutoff from December 15, not Christmas.

USPS says to send by December 17 for Ground Advantage and First-Class Mail, December 18 for Priority Mail and December 19 for Priority Mail Express, within the lower 48. FedEx's last days are December 15 for Ground Economy, December 17 for 5-day Ground, December 22 for 2Day and December 23 for Overnight. UPS had not published its dates as of September 24. Work backward from those days, and remember decoration and the supplier's own ship date come first.

USPS →
Jan 10

Write 'valid to January 10' on China-sourced quotes, and do not promise the tariff cut yet.

On September 24 the US and China extended their trade truce from November 10 to January 10, 2027. The fentanyl-related tariff on Chinese goods stays at 10%, and proposed US fees of up to $1.5 million per China-built ship, which one study said would raise shipping costs 8% to 14%, are paused to the same date. The new relief list has no rates or start date. So Q4 goods are safe from a jump, and Q1 2027 quotes carry the risk.

Supply Chain Dive →
60%

Shorten how long your quotes are good for. Most big suppliers say their costs are up.

In PPAI's latest survey, 60% of its 100 largest suppliers report higher landed costs and 51% report lower gross margins; 56% of distributors report higher supplier costs, and 42% say customers are delaying decisions. The September ISM factory survey's prices index jumped 6.8 points to 77.9. Small-order fees are spreading too: supplier Promovision added a $25 charge on orders under its $100 minimum from October 1, per ASI. Put a 30-day expiry and any small-order fees on every quote.

PPAI →
77,000

Check every rechargeable giveaway. 77,000 HotHands hand warmers were just recalled.

On October 1 the Consumer Product Safety Commission announced a recall of about 77,000 HotHands Rechargeable Hand Warmers, model H163650, because the lithium-ion battery can overheat and catch fire. They sold from July 2025 to August 2026 at Target, Home Depot, Bass Pro Shops and Amazon for $30 to $40. No injuries have been reported, and buyers get a refund. Rechargeable warmers and power banks are popular Q4 corporate gifts. Ask your supplier for battery safety certification in writing, and search cpsc.gov before you order.

CPSC →
−10%

Cotton fell 10% in a month. Ask for better blank pricing, but do not promise flat 2027 prices.

Cotton dropped from a 93-cent peak to 78 to 80 cents a pound by September 22. On October 2 it was 77.75 cents: down 10% in a month, still up 19% on the year. On September 24 Gildan, the biggest blank maker, fell about 12% after TD Securities said activewear demand 'appears to have softened'. Softer demand gives you room to ask for volume pricing and closeouts. Cotton a fifth above last year says not to lock in 2027 prices yet.

Southeast AgNet →

Workflow upgrades

Three things a small team can switch on this month, none of them promo-specific.

Upgrade 01

Google Meet now takes notes on its own on most small-business plans. Check the setting before your next client call.

Since September 29, 'Take notes for me' is switched on by default for Google Workspace Business Standard and Business Plus, in meetings with three or more people. Users can turn it off in Meet settings, and admins in the Admin console. The notes now open on a one-page 'Quick notes' summary of action items and outcomes. Tell clients when a call is being noted, and forward the action items to the order desk instead of retyping them.

Google Workspace →
Upgrade 02

Turn a two-minute voice memo after a client visit into a priced proposal draft.

On September 15 Anthropic added 43 ready-made workflows to Claude for Small Business, with connections to QuickBooks, HubSpot, Shopify, Salesforce, Canva, Google Workspace and Microsoft 365. Proposal Builder turns a voice memo or photos into a branded proposal priced from your past jobs. Speed to Lead answers an after-hours inquiry with two real openings from your calendar and logs it in your CRM. It is on every paid Claude plan and waits for your approval before anything is sent.

Anthropic →
Upgrade 03

Meta's new Muse assistant is free, and it connects to QuickBooks and Shopify.

Meta launched Muse for Small Business in the US and Canada on September 29. You give it a goal, such as running your business or finding new customers, and it flags emails that need a reply, drafts responses and ad campaigns, and looks over sales. It connects to QuickBooks, Shopify, Canva, Zoom, Slack and Stripe, plus your Facebook and Instagram business pages. Meta says it is 'free for most of what people need', and nothing sends or spends without your approval.

Meta →

Five tests for next week

Small, measurable, one week each. Pick one a day.

Monday's test is the one with money on it: China-sourced quotes need an end date. Source: ASI, Supply Chain Dive.
Test 01

Monday

Sort open Q4 quotes by country of origin. On anything from China, add 'valid to January 10' and remove any promise of a tariff cut.

The October cost check →
Test 02

Tuesday

Send three holiday-gift clients one useful item with a personal or give-back touch at their current budget, opening with the 59% number.

The Harris Poll on generic gifts →
Test 03

Wednesday

Pick your holiday order cutoff, working back from December 15, and email it to every active client.

USPS holiday dates →
Test 04

Thursday

Ask the suppliers of every rechargeable item in your Q4 catalog for battery safety certification in writing.

The HotHands recall →
Test 05

Friday

Give one rep an AI note-taker or proposal tool for a week, and count the minutes saved on recaps and quotes.

Google Meet note-taking →

Each takes an hour or less and tells you something you can act on by Friday.

In brief

Everything else worth a minute. Each item links out.

Brands

Yeti told investors that bags and soft coolers will be its next billion-dollar line; expect more styles to pitch for 2027 premium gifts

globenewswire.com · Sep 17

Longer reads

The numbers behind the month, with a source on every line.

The October cost check. What the China deal does and does not cut, what freight and fuel cost now, and the holiday dates.

5 min · Oct 2

Promo software in September. What commonsku, Syncore and ASI actually shipped, and what is still just a promise.

6 min · Sep 17

The September tariff changes, in plain English. What changed, what it costs, and what to re-quote.

4 min · Sep 17

Promo by the numbers. The figures you can safely quote to a client, and the ones that will get you caught.

5 min · Sep 17

Merch worth stealing. Twelve campaigns from this month and the simple trick behind each one.

5 min · Sep 17